It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
