A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
